AMIT SHAH'S POLITICAL AIM TO RECOVER POK IS NOT BACKED BY
INDIA'S MILITARY CAPACITY
By comparing the illegal occupation of PoK with that of
Aksai Chin, India for the first time has diplomatically put China on defensive.
File photo of PM Narendra Modi with Home Minister Amit
Shah | Suraj Singh Bisht | ThePrint
After
Amit Shah and Rajnath Singh, now S. Jaishankar has also made a strong statement
on PoK.
The External Affairs Minister Tuesday said, "PoK is part of India and we expect one day to have physical jurisdiction over it."
The External Affairs Minister Tuesday said, "PoK is part of India and we expect one day to have physical jurisdiction over it."
Is there a paradigm shift in India's foreign policy and
national security strategy?
The parliamentary resolution of February 1994
clearly said that Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) is an integral part of India.
So, why is there a need to reiterate it, and that too ahead of the key UN
General Assembly meeting?
The latest policy shift has put both Pakistan and China
on notice, especially because the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC),
which includes strategic road and rail links, passes through Gilgit-Baltistan.
Building the narrative
A day after the Narendra Modi government removed Jammu
and Kashmir's special status last month, Home Minister Amit Shah said in Parliament, "Kashmir is an
integral part of India… When I talk about Jammu and Kashmir, Pakistan occupied
Kashmir and Aksai Chin are included in it". Citing the Constitution
vis-à-vis Jammu and Kashmir's boundary, Shah said, "We will give our lives
for this region".
Barely a week after Shah's statement, Defence Minister
Rajnath Singh said, "If there will be talks (with
Pakistan), it will be on PoK". He reiterated the stand this weekend when he
said, "The next dialogue will be about terrorism and Pakistan-occupied
Kashmir, and nothing else.”
Last week, Minister of State Jitendra Singh said, "It is not only my or my party's
commitment, but it has been a resolve of Parliament who (sic) unanimously
adopted a resolution in 1994 during then Congress government headed by P.V.
Narasimha Rao, saying that Kashmir is an integral part of India and the only
issue left to be resolved with Pakistan was Pakistan occupied Kashmir."
Army chief General Bipin Rawat in a recent interview to
ANI said, "The next agenda is retrieving PoK
and making it a part of India. The government takes actions in such matters.
The institutions of the country will work as per the orders of the government.
The Army is always ready."
While Akhand Bharat is a lofty concept,
the BJP and the RSS are ideologically committed to recovering the
territories under illegal occupation of Pakistan and China.
Strategic shift in foreign policy
There is no doubt about our de jure claim
over PoK, which is enshrined in the Constitution based on the Instrument of Accession signed 26 October
1947. The same has been upheld by a resolution moved in Parliament in 1994.
PoK consists of 'Azad Kashmir' and Gilgit-Baltistan (both
pseudo autonomous states but de facto governed by Pakistan), with
Pakistan ceding Shaksgam Valley to China in 1963.
India is also committed to the recovery of Aksai Chin and other areas of
J&K occupied/annexed by China through a parliament resolution passed on 14
November 1962.
In the past, despite reiterating its claims over PoK
and Aksai Chin, India had in real terms accepted
the partition of Jammu and Kashmir with the Line of Control (LoC) and the Line
of Actual Control (LAC) as the de facto borders.
But the Narendra Modi government's policy shift has now
rattled both Pakistan and China.
Abrogation of Article 370 and its endorsement by the
international community have sealed the issue as far as the present borders of
Jammu and Kashmir are concerned. In future, these borders will be
non-negotiable both at the international fora and in dialogues with Pakistan.
The recent strategic shift with respect to PoK will
further deny Pakistan any leverage during bilateral talks, forcing Islamabad to
discuss cross-border terrorism and economic cooperation with New Delhi.
The China factor
By comparing the illegal occupation of PoK with that of
Aksai Chin, India for the first time has diplomatically put China on the
defensive.
China is Pakistan's all-weather friend and would want to
make CPEC a success. India has strongly opposed the CPEC because it passes
through the disputed Gilgit-Baltistan. Now by design or default, in formally
reviving its dormant claim on PoK and clubbing Aksai Chin with it, India has
placed itself in a good bargaining position to formalise the LAC as a mutually
acceptable border.
In my view, China has a lot at stake in Gilgit-Baltistan
and it will strive to keep the region conflict-free.
India's military position
Given our limited technological military edge over
Pakistan, we simply do not have the capacity to make major gains in PoK in a
limited war before the nuclear weapons come into play. But a J&K-centric
limited war has always been on the radar of the Indian armed forces. We have
the capacity to extend the LoC by 5-10 kms in selected areas in a 7-10-day
limited war. And, this is what we should do at an opportune time to make our
intent credible.
With respect to the recovery of Aksai Chin, given China's
overwhelming military and technological edge, we can do little more than
maintain a firm stand. Also, due to China's high stakes in CPEC, major
operations launched by India in 'Azad Kashmir' and/or Gilgit-Baltistan will
force Beijing to open a second front anywhere along the LAC.
Notwithstanding the Shia-Sunni divide in
Gilgit-Baltistan, religion binds the people of PoK to Pakistan. The unrest
stems from a long-standing demand for autonomy. In the long-term, it will be
worthwhile for India to exploit these fault lines in the pursuit of national
interests.
Three factors to consider
The success of Narendra Modi government's strategic
foreign policy shift is contingent upon three factors.
First, we have a serious situation in J&K, and
Pakistan will try its best to exploit it. Our political strategy in Jammu and
Kashmir is riding on the military strategy, which is not going to solve the
problem. Until we don't find a solution to the deadlock, our claims on PoK will
not draw any support from the international community.
Second, our political aim to recover PoK is not backed by
our military capacity. To establish overwhelming military edge over Pakistan
and at least near-parity with China, we need to undertake holistic national
security reforms and treble our defence budget. Also, rhetoric apart, it would
take a long time to exploit the evolving fault lines in PoK.
Third, by raising the pitch on Aksai Chin and PoK – the
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor passes through PoK – we have made sure that we
will fight on two fronts in a future conflict.
It should suffice to say that our strategic shift on PoK
is an excellent tool for diplomacy. But militarily, we may not be able to
achieve much.
Lt Gen H S Panag PVSM, AVSM (R) served in the Indian Army
for 40 years. He was GOC in C Northern Command and Central Command. Post
retirement, he was Member of Armed Forces Tribunal. Views are personal.
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